A maior carga tributária do mundo e seus impactos nos produtos alimentícios mais consumidos pela população brasileira

Abstract

This undergraduate thesis analyzes the high Brazilian tax burden and its impacts on the most consumed food products. The research investigates how the population will be economically affected by the New Tax Reform, which was introduced by Constitutional Amendment (EC) No. 132/2023 and regulated by Complementary Law (LC) No. 214/2025, effective from 2026. Prior to the reform, the system was known for its complexity, bureaucracy, and regressivity, where indirect taxes (such as ICMS and PIS/COFINS) represented about 60% of revenue, disproportionately affecting low-income classes. Although taxation on basic food items was low due to exemptions, the system generated high additional costs and a lack of transparency. The reform seeks to simplify the tax framework, replacing several taxes with the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS) and the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS), configuring a dual VAT. The main conclusion is that differentiated tax treatment, which establishes a zero-tax rate for products comprising the National Basic Food Basket (CBN) under the IBS and CBS (Dual VAT), is the most effective way to reduce the financial burden on the population. It is estimated that this change could reduce the price of basic foods by 10% to 20%. Furthermore, a cashback mechanism will be implemented to return part of the taxes paid to low-income families. In contrast, the Selective Tax (IS) will be applied to discourage the consumption of harmful products, such as ultra-processed foods. The study recommends monitoring the implementation to ensure that the cost reduction benefits the end consumer.