Exportar sem diversificar ? concentração e ciclos da pauta exportadora do Amapá (2005 a 2025)

Abstract

This article examines the evolution of product and destination concentration in Amapá's export basket between 2005 and 2025. The study uses Comex Stat data on FOB value, net weight, HS4 headings, destination countries, and product-country pairs. The analysis combines CR1, CR3, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the effective number of categories, participation thresholds, persistence, and logarithmic decomposition of changes in volume and implicit unit value. Export value increased from US$76.5 million in 2005 to US$602.7 million in 2011, before declining to US$144.2 million in 2025. In constant 2025 prices, growth between the endpoints of the period was 14.4%, rather than 88.5%. At the peak of the iron ore cycle in 2011, a single product accounted for 92.0% of exports, and the product HHI reached 0.849. In 2025, the product HHI fell to 0.279 and the destination HHI to 0.116, although wood still accounted for 49.4% of export value. Lower concentration coexisted with low persistence, as 51.4% of product-country pairs with positive export values appeared in only one year. The decomposition shows that volume and unit value contributed differently across phases. The article concludes that diversification was partial and more pronounced across destinations, without eliminating dependence on a small number of products and trade relationships.